Aktion	Zweigstelle	Standorte	Status	Frist	Vorbestellungen
Vorbestellen	Zweigstelle: 07., Urban-Loritz-Pl. 2a	Standorte: PI.Y Duke / College 3f - Englisch / Regal 3f-2	Status: Verfügbar	Frist:	Vorbestellungen: 0

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run

TABLE OF CONTENTS / Why This Isn't a Poker Book 1 / Chapter 1 Life Is Poker, Not Chess 5 / Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks 5 / The hazards of resulting 8 / Quick or dead: our brains weren't built for rationality 11 / Two-minute warning 16 / Dr. Strangelove 18 / Poker vs. chess 20 / A lethal battle of wits 23 / "I'm not sure": using uncertainty to our advantage 26 / Redefining wrong 30 / Chapter 2 Wanna Bet? 37 / Thirty days in Des Moines 37 / We've all been to Des Moines 41 / All decisions are bets 44 / Most bets are bets against ourselves 45 / Our bets are only as good as our beliefs 47 / Hearing is believing 49 / "They saw a game" 56 / The stubbornness of beliefs 59 / Being smart makes it worse 62 / Wanna bet? 64 / Redefining confidence 67 / Chapter 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future 75 / Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge 75 / Outcomes are feedback 78 / Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes 82 / Working backward is hard: the SnackWell's Phenomenon 85 / "If it weren't for luck, I'd win every one" 89 / All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again 94 / People watching 96 / Other people's outcomes reflect on us 102 / Reshaping habit 105 / "Wanna bet?" redux 111 / The hard way 114 / Chapter 4 The Buddy System 119 / "Maybe you're the problem, do you think?" 119 / The red pill or the blue pill? 122 / Not all groups are created equal 127 / The group rewards focus on accuracy 132 / "One Hundred White Castles ¿ and a large chocolate shake": how accountability improves decision-making 135 / The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints 137 / Federal judges: drift happens 141 / Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy 145 / Wanna bet (on science)? 149 / Chapter 5 Dissent to Win 153 / CUDOS to a magician 153 / Mertonian communism: more is more 155 / Universalism: don't shoot the message 160 / Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it's contagious 164 / Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends 169 / Communicating with the world beyond our group 172 / Chapter 6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel 177 / Let Marty McFly run into Marty McFly 177 / Night Jerry 180 / Moving regret in front of our decisions 186 / A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens 190 / "Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?" 194 / Tilt 197 / Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit 200 / Decision swear jar 204 / Reconnaissance: mapping the future 208 / Scenario planning in practice 213 / Backcasting: working backward from a positive future 218 / Premortems: working backward from a negative future 221 / Dendrology and hindsight bias (or, Give the chainsaw a rest) 227 / Acknowledgments 233 / Notes 241 / Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading 253 / Index 267