Verlagstext:
This text discusses the current basis of economic growth, concluding that it is is failing to deliver, and is actually harming our prospects for future security. Further arguments propose a possible long-term strategy for economic revival - eco-restructuring. This strategy involves a shifting away from production of goods to production of services, closing material cycles and eliminating reliance on non-renewable resources.
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" Chapter 1 On Possible and Impossible Futures p1
" Introduction to Forecasting p1
" Contingent Trend Extrapolations p2
" Cycles p3
" Discontinuities p5
" Enduring Long-Term Trends p8
" Implications p9
" Notes p10
" Chapter 2 Drivers of Change p12
" Irreversible Trends as Causal Agents p12
" Demographic Drivers p13
" Technological Drivers p16
" Economic Drivers p21
" Globalization: Cause or Effect? p26
" Implications p28
" Notes p29
" Chapter 3 The Coming Economic Crisis of the West p30
" Background p30
" Debts and Deficits p31
" Why Growth Will (Almost Certainly) Lag p35
" The Squeeze p39
" Debt and Public Policy p41
" The Final Solution--Inflation? p46
" Summary and Implications p48
" Notes p50
" Chapter 4 Wild Cards: Russia, China, India and Islam p53
" Introduction p53
" Russia p53
" China p57
" India p62
" Islam p63
" Summary and Implications p65
" Notes p65
" Chapter 5 Technology, Progress and Economic Growth p67
" What Is Progress? p67
" Causes and Effects p70
" Other Sources of Technical Progress p71
" Why the US Is the Technology Leader p73
" Growth Contra Technological Progress? p74
" Is Technological Change Necessarily Growth Friendly? p76
" Technology and Growth: Standard Theory p81
" Summary and Implications p83
" Notes p84
" Chapter 6 More on Jobs p86
" Introduction p86
" What Does the Evidence Show? p86
" Indirect Wage Impacts of Trade p89
" How To Preserve a Trade Surplus Without Really Competing p93
" Is Job Training the Panacea? p96
" Summary and Implications p97
" Notes p98
" Chapter 7 The Growth Illusion p100
" Introduction p100
" The Growth Debate Revisited p100
" Growth Addiction p101
" Growth or Welfare? p104
" The Problem of Measurement p105
" Notes p112
" Chapter 8 Equity, Poverty and the Coming Social Crisis p114
" Equity Versus Efficiency p114
" Who Benefits from Growth? p115
" Causes and Excuses p117
" Statistics on Wealth p123
" Social Pathology p124
" Rich and Poor in the Developing World p124
" Intergenerational Equity p128
" Social Crisis p130
" Notes p132
" Chapter 9 Economic Growth Versus the Environment p134
" Background p134
" Sustainability Versus Unsustainability p135
" The Environment/Development Dilemma p139
" The Sharp End: Pollution, Depletion, Health and Wealth p143
" The Role of Markets p145
" Summary and Implications p147
" Notes p148
" Chapter 10 Eco-Restructuring for Sustainability p150
" Introduction p150
" Eco-Restructuring as a Strategy p150
" Narrowing the Issues p152
" Limits to Recycling? p153
" Energy Conservation: Are There Limits? p154
" What About the Automobile? p157
" Double Dividends p159
" Summary and Implications p161
" Notes p162
" Chapter 11 The Government Role p164
" Introduction p164
" Optimal Taxes p164
" Tax/Subsidy Reform p167
" Welfare Reform and Exchangeable Quotas p172
" Trade Reform p175
" Regulatory Reform p177
" Science and Technology p179
" Summary and Implications p180
" Notes p181
" Chapter 12 International Development Issues p183
" Introduction p183
" What Can the North Do To Assist the South? p183
" A New Approach to Sustainable Development p185
" The Global Environment p186
" Notes p188
" Chapter 13 The Economic Growth Paradigm p189
" Background p189
" The State of Macro Theory p190
" Problems with the Theory p193
" Sources of Technological Progress p195
" Resources as Factors of Production p196
" Theory Versus Current Policy Proposals p198
" In Conclusion p202
" Notes p204
" Chapter 14 The Free Trade Paradigm p208
" Background p208
" The Implications of Standard Theory p209
" Comparative Advantage Versus Competitive Advantage p212
" Trade Deficits and the Accounting Balance p216
" Trade and Economic Growth p219
" The Absent Time Dimension p219
" Concluding Comments p222
" Notes p224
" Chapter 15 National Debt and National Wealth p226
" Background p226
" The Inadequacy of Market Measures of Wealth p226
" Measuring Human Capital p231
" Implications of Increasing Inequity p235
" Environmental Wealth p236
" Conclusions p239
" Notes p239
" Appendix Monetary Flows and Conservation of Money p241
" Bibliography p245
" Index p253